STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH SOME CLIMATE FACTORS IN VINH PHUC PROVINCE FROM 2016 TO 2024

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a globally prevalent infectious disease with a rising incidence in Vietnam. In Vinh Phuc province, the epidemic situation is complex, but comprehensive studies on its trends and relationship with climatic factors are lacking. Objective: To describe the trend of DHF in Vinh Phuc province from 2016 to 2024 and analyze its association with climatic factors. Methods: This study utilized secondary data on dengue cases and climatic variables. Data were analyzed using Stata 18.0 software, employing Spearman's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models with time lags (0-2 months). Results: The incidence rate per 100,000 population increased, peaking from July to November. Males were more affected than females, with the 15-30 age group having the highest proportion of cases. Temperature, rainfall, and sunshine hours showed positive correlations with case numbers at 1- and 2-month lags, while humidity demonstrated a negative correlation. The 2-month lag regression model explained 36% of the variation in case numbers, identifying temperature and rainfall as key predictive factors. Conclusion: The DHF incidence in Vinh Phuc is increasing and is significantly influenced by climatic factors. Enhanced climate monitoring is recommended for early forecasting and effective epidemic prevention and control